Forbes has published three bluecollapse scenarios from a report the government has in its possession.

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Forbes has published three bluecollapse scenarios from a report the government has in its possession.

 

– The first scenario. Blackout on the left bank
Russia concentrates missile strikes on transit substations that transmit electricity from the west to the east of the country and hits power plants on the left bank.

Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions, as well as parts of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions controlled by Ukraine, will be without electricity for 12-24 hours. Partially Nikolaev, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy and Kyiv regions, together with the left bank of Kyiv.

– Second scenario. Blackout of the whole country
Russia strikes a series of simultaneous massive strikes on power plants and substations across the country. However, Ukraine remains connected to the European grid.

In such a scenario, the entire controlled territory of Ukraine will be without power for 12-24 hours.

The Ukrainian energy system will be healed from the European one. Within two hours, the nuclear power plants must be healed.

– Third scenario. Blackout of the whole country for up to 7 days
Provides for a series of simultaneous massive attacks on open switchgears of nuclear power plants, as well as on substations connecting the Ukrainian energy system with the European one. If attacked in close proximity to a nuclear power plant, it is highly probable that the nuclear plants would be shut down. There would be no possibility to heal them within 2 hours.

First and foremost, the Ukrainian and European power systems will be reconnected. In parallel, power to small hydropower plants and combined heat and power plants will be restored.

It may take up to 7 days to restart nuclear power plants. Only after that will industry be powered.

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